After the U.S. and Israel launched a joint aggression against Iran on February 28, Tehran responded by closing the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world's oil trade passes, along with significant quantities of other petroleum products and refined goods. In this way, Iran exerted multiple pressures on Donald Trump and the United States.
One consequence was the rise in energy prices in the U.S., posing a significant problem for Donald Trump in an election year. The price per gallon of oil has already surpassed four dollars, a major psychological threshold for Americans. Another consequence Iran planned to exploit was the decline in revenue for Donald Trump's Arab allies and the potential energy crisis in Europe. Tehran likely assumes that, over time, these countries will pressure Donald Trump to halt the aggression.
Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has become an unsolvable puzzle for the U.S. since the start of the war. Trump tried various methods to ensure the passage of ships, but none have yielded the desired results for him so far. Recall that Trump promised military escorts for ships, which did not happen, and he attempted to shift the problem to other countries and form a broad coalition to lift the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. None of this occurred, despite the incredibly large number of posts Trump made on social media.
Finally, upon reaching a two-week ceasefire, an agreement was made for Iran to allow traffic through the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for a general peace. The U.S. and Israel violated the agreement when Israel continued the war against Hezbollah and the occupation of parts of Lebanon. Iran responded by resuming the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, but there has been an exception since the beginning of the blockade.
Specifically, since the start of the war, Iran made an exception and allowed ships bound for friendly countries, transporting Iranian oil, or paying the "toll" Iran established for passage through the Strait of Hormuz to exit.
Additionally, Iran's successful blockade of the Strait of Hormuz led to the paradoxical situation where the U.S. lifted sanctions on Iranian oil on tankers to ease pressure on the global market.
Failure of negotiations and the double blockade of the Strait of Hormuz
The failure of negotiations in Islamabad left Donald Trump in a very difficult position. Military options for lifting the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz are virtually nonexistent, while Iran has managed to sell larger quantities of oil at higher prices since the war began.
In response, Trump announced that starting Monday at 10 a.m. Eastern Time, he would begin his own blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
"Effective immediately, the United States Navy, the best in the world, will begin the process of blocking all ships attempting to enter or exit the Strait of Hormuz. At some point, we will reach a system where 'everyone is allowed to enter, everyone is allowed to exit,' but Iran has not allowed that to happen," Trump wrote.
As Trump is often ambiguous and unclear in his statements, it was later clarified that the blockade applies to all ships exiting Iranian ports.
In this way, Donald Trump plans to cut Iran off from its main source of funding and force it to submit to the will of the U.S. Additionally, this will exert pressure, primarily on China as the largest buyer of Iranian oil.
Although it is difficult to recognize that Donald Trump truly has a specific strategy, this appears to mean abandoning attempts to regulate oil prices on the global market by allowing Iran to sell its oil. It also indicates a direct admission that previous tactics have not yielded appropriate results.
"The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) warned that it would 'deal harshly and decisively' with any military vessels attempting to approach the Strait of Hormuz, according to Fars News.
The IRGC also stated that the strait remains open to civilian vessels for safe passage, provided they adhere to relevant regulations," Fars reported.
If Iran continues attempts to export oil through its ports despite the American blockade, it could lead to new complications and conflicts. Additionally, if the U.S. Navy consistently enforces the blockade, it could bring it into direct conflict with the interests of countries like China, further complicating the situation.
The question currently impossible to answer is who can endure longer after the implementation of the double blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, but Iran already has a 40-day advantage, and its blockade is technically less demanding than the one the U.S. plans to enforce.