Domestic farmers had previously warned that the costs of this year's spring sowing could increase by 30 to 40 percent. The reason for this is precisely the crisis in the Middle East, which has contributed to a huge rise in fuel prices, representing one of the key costs in agricultural production.
Additionally, farmers are facing increased prices of inputs, including artificial fertilizers and seeds.
Moreover, a large portion of fertilizer components comes precisely from areas affected by the crisis, such as West Asia, Iran, and surrounding countries, which is why farmers fear there could also be a shortage of inputs.
It is important to note that global trade is already significantly disrupted due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most important energy transport routes.
Compared to February 28, 2026, when the Israeli-American attack on Iran began, a liter of diesel in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina has increased by 1.15 KM, while a liter of gasoline is on average 44 fening more expensive. The average price of a liter of gasoline is currently 2.76 KM, while a liter of diesel costs 3.50 KM.
High Input Prices
In an interview with Klix.ba, farmer Mustafa Gradaščević emphasized that farmers face an annual increase in input prices of about 2 to 10 percent due to inflation and other factors.
"This has additionally caused such a blow to inputs. Just before the New Year, when we were buying fertilizers for this year's season, the price for 100 kilograms was 73 KM, now it's around 105 KM with a tendency for further growth. And the problem is not only that the price is rising, but that we, if this continues and the war prolongs, might have a shortage of that fertilizer. The basic components for fertilizer, or a large part of those components, come precisely from the area of West Asia, Iran, and countries affected by this crisis," said Gradaščević.
Gradaščević adds that food prices could rise if conflicts in the Middle East persist for another two to three months. He also highlighted that there could be shortages of some products.
"Corn is being sown now. We are on the verge of corn sowing, and that is the basic crop for livestock production, for dairy farming, for meat production, and so on. You cannot sow corn in June and July in our hemisphere. If we miss this, if we sow corn at these enormous input prices, then, believe me, food prices will go, colloquially speaking, 'through the roof,' and there might even be shortages of some products," he said.
Possible Rise in Food Prices
He points out that without fuel and fertilizers, intensive agriculture is unimaginable. He emphasized that sowing of some crops has already been completed.
"Wheat was sown in the fall, but now comes fertilization. So, we are now deciding on the yield, how much we will fertilize it, or protect it from diseases, and again that reflects what was said a little earlier—the amount of fertilizer, the price of fertilizer we have, the price of protective agents. Whether there will be enough or not will determine how much wheat we will have. And thus, the price of wheat goes up, meaning the price of flour," he explained.
Gradaščević particularly emphasized corn sowing. He said that if there is not enough fuel and fertilizer to carry out sowing, this problem will especially affect farms.
"If you don't have food to feed bulls and cows, and corn is the basic food for farms, of course there will be less milk and meat. It's a broad spectrum," he said.
Farmers have criticized the entity governments and the Council of Ministers of Bosnia and Herzegovina for not addressing this issue. They point out that they are dealing with irrelevant matters.
Gradaščević highlighted the problem of the lack of commodity reserves.
"Undoubtedly, product shortages are coming, nor do we have commodity reserves—to provide farmers with fuel or some fertilizers to mitigate the impact on the prices of some basic products. No measures are being taken. No one even plans to tackle this issue. Crisis management is a disaster; remember the coronavirus," concluded Gradaščević.
Experts have previously warned about the problem of the lack of commodity reserves in Bosnia and Herzegovina. It is estimated that Bosnia and Herzegovina imports more than 65 percent of its food, and data from the Foreign Trade Chamber of Bosnia and Herzegovina showed that food worth about five billion marks is imported annually.
The chief economist of the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), Maximo Torero, recently warned that even after the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, it will take months for the global market to stabilize.
"If the conflict lasts just a few more weeks, global food supplies will be significantly disrupted. This will affect the planting and production of food. There will be a lower supply of basic grains, animal feed, and thus dairy products and meat in the world," said Torero.