Airports Council International (ACI) Europe has sent a letter to European Transport Commissioner Apostolos Tzitzikostas, stating that the bloc is three weeks away from potential shortages. This warning heightens concerns about the risk of flight cancellations or holidays being disrupted if the U.S. and Israel's conflict with Iran continues.
"If the passage through the Strait of Hormuz is not restored in a significant and stable manner within the next three weeks, systemic shortages of aviation fuel in the EU will become a reality," the letter states.
Aviation fuel prices have surged sharply since the end of February following attacks on Iran, reportedly ordered by Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Michael O’Leary, CEO of Europe's largest airline Ryanair, said this week that the United Kingdom, although not an EU member, is the most vulnerable country in Europe to potential aviation fuel shortages due to its reliance on Kuwait.
The last shipment of European aviation fuel that passed through the Strait of Hormuz before the war began is expected to arrive in Copenhagen tomorrow, after the same tanker partially delivered its cargo to Rotterdam on Monday, according to data from Vortexa.
Price increases will translate into higher inflation, but complete shortages of aviation fuel could cause even greater economic damage if they force individuals and companies to cancel travel or delay exports.
ACI highlighted the growing concern within the airport industry regarding the availability of aviation fuel, as well as the need for proactive monitoring and action by the EU, noting that supply is further strained by the impact of military activities on demand.
"The issues could be particularly pronounced at the start of the peak summer season when air traffic drives the entire tourism ecosystem on which many economies depend," ACI stated in the letter, first published by the Financial Times.
Willie Walsh, Director of IATA, said that even if the Strait of Hormuz remains open, it will take several months to rebalance supply given the disruptions to refining capacities in the Middle East.