The analysis starts from the lessons of the war with Iran and considers the future period, almost two years ahead, when the effects of right-wing, anti-European movements in power in Europe combine with the consequences of a prolonged war with Iran that preoccupies Washington. The scenario, developed by the Baltic Defense Initiative based in Vilnius, aims to highlight specific weaknesses in Lithuania's defense policy so they can be addressed as soon as possible. According to the scenario, it is December 2027, and President Marine Le Pen withdraws the French nuclear shield from all NATO allies, nullifying previous Parisian promises of nuclear burden-sharing in Europe with the United Kingdom. Simultaneously, the United States is described as having been exhausted by 18 months of war with Iran and having depleted stockpiles. In such a context, at 11 o'clock, Russia launches a devastating attack with hypersonic missiles on the Lithuanian government, followed by the launch of over 170,000 Shahed drones over the next 60 days. According to the study, these attacks completely level Vilnius and destroy every bridge, power plant, hospital, and water treatment facility in the country. The think tank emphasizes that the scenario is entirely based on verified capabilities of existing weapon systems, observed production rates of military equipment like drones, and documented global political trends. On the ninetieth day, as reported by the Baltic Defense Initiative, Moscow issues an ultimatum requiring all three Baltic states to accept Russian occupation, or Riga and Tallinn will be next in line. The text notes that opinions among officials and analysts vary widely regarding Russia's readiness to attack the Baltic states, which are NATO members. Nevertheless, all Eastern European countries have significantly increased defense spending in recent years to become a serious obstacle to potential aggression in the event of war. Earlier this year, Estonia's foreign intelligence service published an assessment stating that Russia is not expected to attack any NATO member state in the next two years, which the report also presents as confirmation of European countries' efforts to rapidly strengthen their own defense capabilities. The founder of the Baltic Defense Initiative, Thiebaut Devergranne, a former official of the French Secretariat for Defense and National Security (SGDSN) reporting to the prime minister, claims to have identified a flaw in the Lithuanian constitution that the country's authorities should consider. He states that the constitution does not provide a clear line of succession to ensure continuity of power if the speaker of the Seimas parliament is incapacitated. Therefore, if an attack successfully neutralizes both the president and the speaker of parliament, it would be unclear who would assume the role of the next supreme commander. The report adds that the Baltic Defense Initiative has developed over 200 proposals focused on strengthening Lithuania's defense, "based on the French model of deterrence after World War II, in which sovereignty is built through strength."