The military conflict with Iran, presented by the U.S. as a means to reorganize the balance of power in the Middle East and strengthen containment against China, is perceived in Beijing as a strategic mistake that could accelerate American decline and create new spaces for Chinese influence.
The choice of military confrontation with Iran was portrayed by its supporters as a move that could shift balances in the Middle East, constraining a regime considered a threat and curbing its nuclear ambitions. At the same time, the conflict is seen as affecting the global balance of power, challenging a rising China against American dominance over key factors such as oil flow.
However, a month after the conflict began, this approach is assessed in Beijing as erroneous and arrogant. According to analyses and conversations The Economist conducted with Chinese diplomats and experts, the Chinese leadership has chosen not to engage directly, following the saying attributed to Napoleon Bonaparte: "Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake."
In this context, the American stance is seen as confirmation of the strategic choices of Chinese leader Xi Jinping, who has prioritized national security over economic development. Beijing believes the war could accelerate the decline of American power, while a future peace agreement could open opportunities for Chinese investment and economic penetration.
From the Chinese perspective, Washington is acting against Iran due to a perception of its own weakening. Analysts emphasize that the use of force is not accompanied by a clear strategy, while President Donald Trump is reported to have ignored expert advice, giving the impression of a lack of a coherent plan.
Meanwhile, the possibility of a ground operation is seen as a risk for long-term U.S. involvement in the Middle East, which could distract it from East Asia, a region where China aims to strengthen its influence. Such a situation could push some Asian countries to avoid clashes with Beijing, fearing American instability.
In the energy sector, China has strengthened self-sufficiency, creating strategic oil reserves and investing in nuclear, solar, and wind energy, while continuing to use domestic coal. Simultaneously, Beijing is expanding its economic influence, using tools such as rare earth exports and targeting strategic sectors like semiconductors and advanced technologies.
The conflict could also create economic opportunities for China, as Gulf countries and Iran will need reconstruction, while demand for alternative energy technologies may increase. At the same time, the U.S. is expected to show more flexibility in negotiations with China, including upcoming meetings between Trump and Xi in Beijing.
However, Chinese experts also express concerns, particularly about the use of artificial intelligence by the American military and the consequences of a prolonged conflict on the global economy. They emphasize that an unstable international order could negatively affect China itself, which relies heavily on exports and global stability.
Finally, the analysis highlights that, although there is talk of U.S. decline, history has shown that it retains a high capacity to adapt, while China faces internal challenges such as an aging population and political system constraints.