Washington and Tehran are attempting to uphold a bilateral ceasefire considered the first step toward a broader political agreement. At the heart of the negotiations are three decisive issues: the Strait of Hormuz, the nuclear program, and the easing of sanctions.
As Corriere writes, Iran’s strongest point remains Hormuz. The idea of imposing a fee on ships passing through this vital oil corridor would bring the Tehran regime substantial revenue and a new instrument of pressure on global markets. If realized, this would be a strategic victory, as it would shift from the threat of blockade to financial control over the region’s most important maritime route.
On the nuclear dossier, the political advantage appears to lie with Donald Trump and Israel. Iran seeks to protect its right to possess uranium for civilian use, but a much stricter international monitoring formula is being discussed at the table. This would give Washington the opportunity to present the agreement as a diplomatic success: curbing Iran’s military ambitions.
In this scenario, China is emerging as a quiet winner. Beijing has increased its influence by supporting the reopening of Hormuz and the stabilization of energy flows. This is an opportunity to strengthen its role as Iran’s economic guarantor and as a diplomatic actor gaining ground against the West.
But beyond the political winners, the biggest loser remains the international order. Threats of strikes against civilian infrastructure, pressure on maritime corridors, and the use of tariffs as geopolitical weapons are becoming normalized. This shows that the logic of force is increasingly prevailing, while international law is being relegated to the background.
In the end, the ceasefire is not the end of the crisis, but the beginning of a major regional bargain: Iran seeks economic victories, Trump a political success, while China is strengthening its role as a negotiating power.