On April 15, several significant developments were reported in global energy markets. One of the most notable was the unexpected drop in U.S. crude oil reserves, while the European Union is preparing for potential energy crisis scenarios. At the same time, Italy received more positive news regarding liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply.
Corriere della Sera writes that the Italian energy company Edison is replacing missing Qatari LNG with supplies purchased on the short-term market, with a shipment expected on April 16 at the regasification terminal near Rovigo.
In terms of prices, oil did not see strong movements on April 15, with quotations fluctuating between $90 and $93 per barrel for U.S. WTI and between $94 and $96.8 for London Brent.
More "noise" was made by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data on the unexpected decline in commercial crude oil reserves, which fell in the week ending April 10 by about 910,000 barrels compared to the previous week. Analysts had expected an increase.
In the same week, around 4.1 million barrels were withdrawn from strategic reserves, and gasoline reserves fell by 6,328 million barrels.
Following the UN and World Bank's warning about the "risk of the largest energy crisis of modern times," the EU held a closed-door meeting with member state ambassadors on April 15.
The Commission stated that it is assessing two main scenarios. If a ceasefire were maintained and the U.S. blockade of the Strait were lifted, oil and gas flows would return to normal within a few months and prices would fall.
Oil and jet fuel prices would drop by the end of summer, while the global LNG market would remain tight until 2030 due to damage to Qatar's infrastructure.
If tensions were to continue, energy markets would face a prolonged supply crisis and extreme price peaks, while Europe could struggle to fill gas stocks for winter.
Brussels is preparing proposals to compensate for the consequences. The Commission's package against the energy crisis will be discussed by governments at the informal Council on April 23-24 in Cyprus. Among the measures, temporary interventions for the most exposed households and businesses and more flexibility for state aid are foreseen.